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Objective:To investigate the risk factors associated with mortality in patients with severe traumatic liver injury (TLI) and to establish and validate an early prediction model for mortality.Methods:A retrospective cohort study was conducted to analyze the clinical data of 273 patients with severe TLI admitted to the ICU from the medical information mart for the intensive care-IV (MIMIC-IV) database. The cohort consisted of 176 males and 97 females, with age ranging from 18 to 83 years [35.6 years(25.7,57.5)years]. The patients were divided into two groups based on in-hospital mortality: the survival group (253 patients, 92.7%) and the death group (20 patients, 7.3%). The two groups were compared with regards to gender, age, cause and type of injury, treatment method, massive blood transfusion, comorbidities as well as vital signs and laboratory tests measured within 24 hours of ICU admission. Univariate analysis was used to screen for risk factors associated with mortality in severe TLI patients. Independent risk factors for mortality were determined using multivariate Logistic regression analysis. Lasso regression was used to screen for predictors of mortality, and a nomogram prognostic model was then established through a multivariate Logistic regression analysis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the discrimination of the model, while the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and calibration curve were used to evaluate the calibration of the model. The model′s clinical applicability was evaluated through decision curve analysis (DCA). Internal validation was performed by the 200 Bootstrap samples, and external validation was performed by using 163 patients with severe TLI from the emergency ICU collaborative research database (eICU-CRD). Finally, the predictive efficacy of the nomogram model was compared to other trauma or severity scores.Results:Univariate analysis showed that the age, cause of injury, massive blood transfusion, chronic liver disease and laboratory tests measured within 24 hours of ICU admission, including temperature, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, mean arterial pressure, shock index, platelets, red blood cell distribution width (RDW), mean red blood cell hemoglobin concentration (MCHC), blood glucose, blood urea nitrogen, creatinine, anion gap, bicarbonate, prothrombin time (PT), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) and international normalized ratio (INR) were associated with the mortality of severe TLI patients ( P<0.05 or 0.01). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis revealed that age ( OR=1.08, 95% CI 1.03, 1.12, P<0.01), body temperature <36 ℃ ( OR=8.00, 95% CI 2.17, 29.53, P<0.01), shock index ( OR=9.59, 95% CI 1.76, 52.18, P<0.01) and anion gap ( OR=1.32, 95% CI 1.15, 1.53, P<0.01) were significantly associated with mortality in severe TLI patients. Lasso regression analysis selected 7 predictors, including age, body temperature<36 ℃, shock index, anion gap, chronic liver disease, creatinine and APTT. Based on these 7 predictors, a nomogram prediction model was developed. The AUC of the nomogram for predicting mortality was 0.96 (95% CI 0.94, 0.99), and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test indicated a good fit ( P>0.05). The calibration curve demonstrated excellent consistency between the predicted and actual probabilities, and DCA demonstrated that the model had good clinical net benefit at all risk threshold probability ranges. Internal validation confirmed the stability of the model ( AUC=0.96, 95% CI 0.92, 0.98), and external validation demonstrated good generalization ability ( AUC=0.95, 95% CI 0.91, 0.98). Moreover, the nomogram exhibited superior predictive efficacy compared with injury severity score (ISS), revised trauma score (RTS), trauma injury severity score (TRISS), sequential organ failure score (SOFA), acute physiological score III (APS III), Logistic organ dysfunction score (LODS), Oxford acute severity of illness score (OASIS) and simplified acute physiological score II (SAPS II). Conclusions:Age, body temperature <36 ℃, shock index and anion gap are independent risk factors for mortality in severe TLI patients. A nomogram prognosis model based on 7 predictors, namely age, body temperature <36 ℃, shock index, anion gap, chronic liver disease, creatinine and APTT exhibits good predictive efficacy and robustness, and is contributive to accurately assess the risk of mortality in severe TLI patients at an early stage.
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OBJECTIVE@#To analyze the current status of diagnosis and management of acute appendicitis (AA) in China.@*METHODS@#Questionnaire survey was used to retrospectively collect data of hospitalized patients with AA from 43 medical centers nationwide in 2017 (Sort by number of cases provided: Jinling Hospital of Medical School of Nanjing University, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Lu'an People's Hospital, Tengzhou Central People's Hospital, Dalian Central Hospital, The Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, Dongying People's Hospital, Jinjiang Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Huangshan Shoukang Hospital, Xuyi People's Hospital, Nanjing Jiangbei People's Hospital, Lanzhou 940th Hospital of PLA, Heze Municipal Hospital, The First College of Clinical Medical Science of China Three Gorges University, Affiliated Jiujiang Hospital of Nanchang University, The Second People's Hospital of Hefei, Affiliated Central Hospital of Shandong Zaozhuang Mining Group, The Third People's Hospital of Kunshan City, Xuzhou First People's Hospital, The 81st Group Army Hospital of PLA, Linyi Central Hospital, The General Hospital of Huainan Eastern Hospital Group, The 908th Hospital of PLA, Liyang People's Hospital, The 901th Hospital of Joint Logistic Support Force, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, The Fourth Hospital of Jilin University, Harbin Acheng District People's Hospital, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Nanjing Luhe People's Hospital, Taixing Municipal People's Hospital, Baotou Central Hospital, The Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University, Linyi People's Hospital, The 72st Group Army Hospital of PLA, Zaozhuang Municipal Hospital, People's Hospital of Dayu County, Taixing City Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Suzhou Municipal Hospital, Beijing Guang'anmen Hospital, Langxi County Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Nanyang Central Hospital, The Affiliated People's Hospital of Inner Mongolia Medical University).The diagnosis and management of AA were analyzed through unified summary. Different centers collected and summarized their data in 2017 and sent back the questionnaires for summary.@*RESULTS@#A total of 8 766 AA patients were enrolled from 43 medical centers, including 4 711 males (53.7%) with median age of 39 years and 958 (10.9%) patients over 65 years old. Of 8 776 patients, 5 677 cases (64.6%) received one or more imaging examinations, and the other 3 099 (35.4%) did not receive any imaging examination. A total of 1 858 (21.2%) cases received medical treatment, mainly a combination of nitroimidazoles (1 107 cases, 59.8%) doublet regimen, followed by a single-agent regimen of non-nitroimidazoles (451 cases, 24.4%), a nitroimidazole-free doublet regimen (134 cases, 7.2%), a triple regimen of combined nitroimidazoles (116 cases, 6.3%), nitroimidazole alone (39 cases, 2.1%) and nitroimidazole-free triple regimen (3 cases, 0.2%). Of the 6 908 patients (78.8%) who underwent surgery, 4 319 (62.5%) underwent laparoscopic appendectomy and 2589 (37.5%) underwent open surgery. Ratio of laparotomy was higher in those patients under 16 years old (392 cases) or over 65 years old (258 cases) [15.1%(392/2 589) and 10.0%(258/2 589), respectively, compared with 8.5%(367/4 316) and 8.0%(347/4 316) in the same age group for laparoscopic surgery, χ²=91.415, P<0.001; χ²=15.915,P<0.001]. Patients with complicated appendicitis had higher ratio of undergoing open surgery as compared to those undergoing laparoscopic surgery [26.7%(692/2 589) vs. 15.6%(672/4 316), χ²=125.726, P<0.001].The cure rates of laparoscopic and open surgery were 100.0% and 99.8%(2 585/2 589) respectively without significant difference (P=0.206). Postoperative complication rates were 4.5%(121/2 589) and 4.7%(196/4 316) respectively, and the difference was not statistically significant (χ²=0.065, P=0.799). The incidence of surgical site infection was lower (0.6% vs. 1.7%, χ²=17.315, P<0.001), and hospital stay was shorter [6(4-7) days vs. 6(5-8) days, U=4 384 348.0, P<0.001] in the laparoscopic surgery group, while hospitalization cost was higher (median 12 527 yuan vs. 9 342 yuan, U=2 586 809.0, P<0.001).@*CONCLUSIONS@#The diagnosis of acute appendicitis is still clinically based, supplemented by imaging examination. Appendectomy is still the most effective treatment at present. Laparoscopic appendectomy has become the main treatment strategy, but anti-infective drugs are also very effective.
